(albiet a less than good source) Reddit seemed to say, this is functionally an INCREASE in the amount of nuclear weapons France will wield, and represents a force increase predicated on the strong belief the American nuclear umbrella cannot be relied on. The subs wield 10 warhead, 100kt MIRV and so they will be fielding more missiles capable of hitting more targets.
I can see this being both good and bad for Europe. Good in as much as its the kind of self reliance Europe needs, and America has been pressing for, and Bad in as much as Russia will be very very upset, and America will be saying "no, not like that" in a belief the more compliant AUKUS process was going to do an outcome more favourable to the US.
With a strong domestic nuclear sector, and with committed orders for a new fleet of subs, this will boost french trade, and presumably also be somewhat economically useful albiet inflationary. Jobs and enhanced position inside the European defence posture.
Meantime, the Eurofighter "lets try again" edition is falling apart, and Rafale is saying "thats ok, we've got this"
I would say the French Defence Materiel industry is pretty happy at this point, as are french construction, downstream industry, nuclear, and military lobby interests.
Not that there are no downside risks, but it would be understood a move to try and head off things by the economy RT represents is basically calling for Götterdämmerung. There's no coming back from an overt move against NATO and related economies now, that moment has passed. All the covert "we bought houses next to your airbases" and "we are playing games with drones" is fine and dandy. If they move troops to forward positions, the lids are coming off the launch tubes.
That's kind of what MAD is. It's also because of MAD that France signals it's intention. No point doing this in secret.
I would point out the Russians also signal intent. So, the M part of MAD is still there. Ukraine aside, there's mutuality around what they do facing european nations, mostly.
Overflights and ships straying off-track have been going on continuously since the 1950s. What changes is the intensity of reportage, not the acts themselves very much.
If you're looking for disquieting change, it's how China is postured. They've decided to be a lot more confrontational about the island chain claims, and Taiwan, and even the reach of their navy on tour around Australia and New Zealand.
France has an unusual rung on their escalation ladder, in that they will use a low-yield nuke on a military target before they launch their big ones at cities, but this is still fundamentally about trying to avoid MAD, by hoping that the very expensive signal of _actually_ nuking something but not going all-out will precipitate some de-escalation by showing that they really are serious about it.
(albiet a less than good source) Reddit seemed to say, this is functionally an INCREASE in the amount of nuclear weapons France will wield, and represents a force increase predicated on the strong belief the American nuclear umbrella cannot be relied on. The subs wield 10 warhead, 100kt MIRV and so they will be fielding more missiles capable of hitting more targets.
I can see this being both good and bad for Europe. Good in as much as its the kind of self reliance Europe needs, and America has been pressing for, and Bad in as much as Russia will be very very upset, and America will be saying "no, not like that" in a belief the more compliant AUKUS process was going to do an outcome more favourable to the US.
With a strong domestic nuclear sector, and with committed orders for a new fleet of subs, this will boost french trade, and presumably also be somewhat economically useful albiet inflationary. Jobs and enhanced position inside the European defence posture.
Meantime, the Eurofighter "lets try again" edition is falling apart, and Rafale is saying "thats ok, we've got this"
I would say the French Defence Materiel industry is pretty happy at this point, as are french construction, downstream industry, nuclear, and military lobby interests.
>Meantime, the Eurofighter "lets try again" edition is falling apart,
FCAS seems to be in a little trouble but GCAP is doing OK.
I saw RT was already speculating/fearmongering about France giving Ukraine secret nuke components. This all seems like it could get quite bad.
Not that there are no downside risks, but it would be understood a move to try and head off things by the economy RT represents is basically calling for Götterdämmerung. There's no coming back from an overt move against NATO and related economies now, that moment has passed. All the covert "we bought houses next to your airbases" and "we are playing games with drones" is fine and dandy. If they move troops to forward positions, the lids are coming off the launch tubes.
That's kind of what MAD is. It's also because of MAD that France signals it's intention. No point doing this in secret.
I would point out the Russians also signal intent. So, the M part of MAD is still there. Ukraine aside, there's mutuality around what they do facing european nations, mostly.
Overflights and ships straying off-track have been going on continuously since the 1950s. What changes is the intensity of reportage, not the acts themselves very much.
If you're looking for disquieting change, it's how China is postured. They've decided to be a lot more confrontational about the island chain claims, and Taiwan, and even the reach of their navy on tour around Australia and New Zealand.
France doesnt believe in MAD, theirs is more of a it looks funny lets shoot it first and ask questions later kinda deal.
France has an unusual rung on their escalation ladder, in that they will use a low-yield nuke on a military target before they launch their big ones at cities, but this is still fundamentally about trying to avoid MAD, by hoping that the very expensive signal of _actually_ nuking something but not going all-out will precipitate some de-escalation by showing that they really are serious about it.
Good analysis.