Iran is making a lot of money with their "troll gate". [0]
I am sure that the great negotiator would be willing to end hostilities if they merely split the money with him. That follows his usual pattern of settling disputes he can't win.
Iran has four times the land area and over three times the population that Iraq did at the start of Bush Jr.'s war, plus they've been preparing for an invasion by the U.S. specifically since 1979. Bush assembled a large coalition of many allies to share the costs, but the U.S. is still struggling with the debt that resulted from the second Iraq war. A land war in Iran would bankrupt the U.S. and the Iranians know it. Occupying the entire country is also the only way to secure the straight of Hormuz by force, because every part of Iran is within drone range of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is a threat to their very existence. They are very much on what Sun Tzu would consider "desperate ground". For the U.S., this invasion is a "wag the dog" operation that is devoid of concrete policy goals.
To put things in Trump's parlance, Iran has the cards and the U.S. doesn't. If Trump is going to declare victory and TACO, he's going to have to accept Iranian control of Hormuz and pay for the passage of ships. This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse.
It's fallen below 40% for the first time, per Nate Silver, and that poll was taken before this story came out.
If he follows through on his threat to destroy all of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, fuel prices will rise to unprecedented levels and remain there for a very long time. He will not be able to blame anyone else. People will plaster gas pumps with "I did that!" stickers, only with Trump's picture this time, rather than Biden's.
And it still won't force Iran to open the Strait. He has no good options there. Iran is second only to Russia when it comes to shrugging off staggering losses in wartime. Trump cannot force the Iranians to do much of anything without either invading them or nuking them. If he does the former, the resulting carnage will cost him his remaining support among Republicans at all levels including the MAGA faithful. If he does the latter, he's definitely finished.
Nuking won't accomplish anything anyway. There's no obvious target that would "defeat" Iran given the seemingly decentralized command structure, and using nuclear weapons anywhere near the Strait would render it unusable.
Unfortunately the links beyond the first page of comments don't work, but if the visible comments are anything to go by, wow. Trump dun goofed. You get the sense that he's finally reached his Waterloo. No one is even trying to defend him.
Question for regular WSJ readers: do their comments normally read this way, or is this new?
WSJ is for rich conservatives where FoxNews is for poor conservatives (both are owned by Murdoch). But they have skin in the game (business/finance/they own stocks) so their criticism of Trump can be pretty brutal if it hurts their bottom line.
Is this some kind of gift to domestic oil producers who are big donors to Trump and MAGA PACs? I saw the government just approved E15 ethanol mixed gas as an emergency measure. I feel like every decision and crisis is somehow used to corruptly build power and wealth for someone in the Trump sphere.
I honestly do see Trump just declaring he lost. "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. He's been known to acknowledge defeat, like his complete 180 when Mamdani won.
Can we set up a bet on Polymarket or something? I'll take that action any day. He would have to phrase such an acknowledgement as an apology, and a Trump doesn't do that. Ever.
He didn't directly acknowledge defeat with Mamdani, at least not that I heard. It was more a case of populist game recognizing populist game.
Iran is making a lot of money with their "troll gate". [0]
I am sure that the great negotiator would be willing to end hostilities if they merely split the money with him. That follows his usual pattern of settling disputes he can't win.
[0] https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-syst...
Iran has four times the land area and over three times the population that Iraq did at the start of Bush Jr.'s war, plus they've been preparing for an invasion by the U.S. specifically since 1979. Bush assembled a large coalition of many allies to share the costs, but the U.S. is still struggling with the debt that resulted from the second Iraq war. A land war in Iran would bankrupt the U.S. and the Iranians know it. Occupying the entire country is also the only way to secure the straight of Hormuz by force, because every part of Iran is within drone range of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is a threat to their very existence. They are very much on what Sun Tzu would consider "desperate ground". For the U.S., this invasion is a "wag the dog" operation that is devoid of concrete policy goals.
To put things in Trump's parlance, Iran has the cards and the U.S. doesn't. If Trump is going to declare victory and TACO, he's going to have to accept Iranian control of Hormuz and pay for the passage of ships. This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse.
This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse.
I don't think he can pull it off this time. I think he's finally gone too far.
Netanyahu and Hegseth may have unwittingly accomplished what Clinton and Harris couldn't.
> I think he's finally gone too far.
He'll be fine. It should be pretty clear by now that 40% of the country prefers Trump regardless of policy.
It's fallen below 40% for the first time, per Nate Silver, and that poll was taken before this story came out.
If he follows through on his threat to destroy all of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, fuel prices will rise to unprecedented levels and remain there for a very long time. He will not be able to blame anyone else. People will plaster gas pumps with "I did that!" stickers, only with Trump's picture this time, rather than Biden's.
And it still won't force Iran to open the Strait. He has no good options there. Iran is second only to Russia when it comes to shrugging off staggering losses in wartime. Trump cannot force the Iranians to do much of anything without either invading them or nuking them. If he does the former, the resulting carnage will cost him his remaining support among Republicans at all levels including the MAGA faithful. If he does the latter, he's definitely finished.
Nuking won't accomplish anything anyway. There's no obvious target that would "defeat" Iran given the seemingly decentralized command structure, and using nuclear weapons anywhere near the Strait would render it unusable.
https://archive.is/ivJeE
Unfortunately the links beyond the first page of comments don't work, but if the visible comments are anything to go by, wow. Trump dun goofed. You get the sense that he's finally reached his Waterloo. No one is even trying to defend him.
Question for regular WSJ readers: do their comments normally read this way, or is this new?
WSJ is for rich conservatives where FoxNews is for poor conservatives (both are owned by Murdoch). But they have skin in the game (business/finance/they own stocks) so their criticism of Trump can be pretty brutal if it hurts their bottom line.
Is this some kind of gift to domestic oil producers who are big donors to Trump and MAGA PACs? I saw the government just approved E15 ethanol mixed gas as an emergency measure. I feel like every decision and crisis is somehow used to corruptly build power and wealth for someone in the Trump sphere.
It’s more likely that the US does not have a strategically viable path to open the Strait of Hormuz.
That is my read, some saner heads have communicated there is no way to win. So, just walk away and declare Mission Accomplished.
I honestly do see Trump just declaring he lost. "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. He's been known to acknowledge defeat, like his complete 180 when Mamdani won.
> "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect.
Not an American but. There is no fucking way Trump will acknowledge that.
Can we set up a bet on Polymarket or something? I'll take that action any day. He would have to phrase such an acknowledgement as an apology, and a Trump doesn't do that. Ever.
He didn't directly acknowledge defeat with Mamdani, at least not that I heard. It was more a case of populist game recognizing populist game.
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