1. Economists, AI experts, and superforecasters expect that, by 2030, AI will significantly exceed the capabilities of present-day systems; but economists predict that key indicators—including GDP, total factor productivity, and labor force participation—will remain close to historical trends
2. Economists assign a 14% chance to an exceptionally rapid-progress scenario materializing, which they predict could lead to major increases in GDP growth and wealth inequality, along with a large decrease in labor force participation
3. Economists support job retraining as a response to AI's economic impacts, predicting it would increase labor force participation in a rapid AI progress scenario by 1 percentage point (roughly 2.76 million additional people in the labor force), while providing a 0.2 percentage point boost to GDP growth"
By way of Ethan Mollick
Study by Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), study funded by Open Philanthropy
Full report:https://forecastingresearch.org/s/forecasting-the-economic-e...
"Summary:
1. Economists, AI experts, and superforecasters expect that, by 2030, AI will significantly exceed the capabilities of present-day systems; but economists predict that key indicators—including GDP, total factor productivity, and labor force participation—will remain close to historical trends
2. Economists assign a 14% chance to an exceptionally rapid-progress scenario materializing, which they predict could lead to major increases in GDP growth and wealth inequality, along with a large decrease in labor force participation
3. Economists support job retraining as a response to AI's economic impacts, predicting it would increase labor force participation in a rapid AI progress scenario by 1 percentage point (roughly 2.76 million additional people in the labor force), while providing a 0.2 percentage point boost to GDP growth"