I’ve been a holder of Intel since low $20’s and kept on accruing more and more.
Every once in a while opportunities like intel come along where a previous tech market leader loses strength and the market overreacts and drives the price down way too much.
Mainstream media latches on, calls the end of the company, tech YouTubers and the HN comment section follow suit. Price further falls to ridiculous lows and becomes a screaming value buy.
It doesn’t happen often, but when it does it’s a great opportunity. There are of course exceptions (Kodak comes to mind) but a company like Intel when we are going through perhaps the largest ever compute and processing demand surge was just silly.
On the flip side, the current price is massively high (record high), and practically nothing has changed at the company.
The Foundry lost over $2B this quarter. If it keeps losing that much, they're on track to lose $8B this year. When they first segregated the Foundry P&L, $8B/year loss was what they announced. And that caused the price to tank from $50 down to almost $25.
They said their plan was to break even in 2027 (2028 if we're being generous). They've made almost no progress on that front.
Their revenue is about the same as then.
Their products are as what was expected back then (as in, they're good, but they had planned them to be about this good by this point in time). None of the recent news (Terrafab, etc) is significant. Their AI strategy is nonexistent (which is fine by me, but it was cited as one of the reasons the last CEO failed).
The only difference is they replaced a transparent CEO with one who doesn't like giving details. The honest CEO resulted in a loss in stock price. The current CEO, who is merely continuing the prior CEO's plan, doesn't reveal anything of value, and the stock skyrockets.
I think $40-60 is an appropriate price for Intel. $60 if it is doing well (which so far it's not). Going to $80 aftermarket should require them to compete and be expected to beat AMD on HW.
Appreciate the analysis and agree it's gone more vertical than a Saturn V rocket. I sold a large chuck today in AF. My point withstanding is the tech crowd (including HN comments) and tech YouTubers are clueless when it comes to investing. Perhaps when sentiment on HN of a publicly traded company reaches peak bear you buy, buy, buy.
Examples: Boeing during "covid". Tesla pretty much anytime. Intel....
I’ve been a holder of Intel since low $20’s and kept on accruing more and more.
Every once in a while opportunities like intel come along where a previous tech market leader loses strength and the market overreacts and drives the price down way too much.
Mainstream media latches on, calls the end of the company, tech YouTubers and the HN comment section follow suit. Price further falls to ridiculous lows and becomes a screaming value buy.
It doesn’t happen often, but when it does it’s a great opportunity. There are of course exceptions (Kodak comes to mind) but a company like Intel when we are going through perhaps the largest ever compute and processing demand surge was just silly.
On the flip side, the current price is massively high (record high), and practically nothing has changed at the company.
The Foundry lost over $2B this quarter. If it keeps losing that much, they're on track to lose $8B this year. When they first segregated the Foundry P&L, $8B/year loss was what they announced. And that caused the price to tank from $50 down to almost $25.
They said their plan was to break even in 2027 (2028 if we're being generous). They've made almost no progress on that front.
Their revenue is about the same as then.
Their products are as what was expected back then (as in, they're good, but they had planned them to be about this good by this point in time). None of the recent news (Terrafab, etc) is significant. Their AI strategy is nonexistent (which is fine by me, but it was cited as one of the reasons the last CEO failed).
The only difference is they replaced a transparent CEO with one who doesn't like giving details. The honest CEO resulted in a loss in stock price. The current CEO, who is merely continuing the prior CEO's plan, doesn't reveal anything of value, and the stock skyrockets.
I think $40-60 is an appropriate price for Intel. $60 if it is doing well (which so far it's not). Going to $80 aftermarket should require them to compete and be expected to beat AMD on HW.
Appreciate the analysis and agree it's gone more vertical than a Saturn V rocket. I sold a large chuck today in AF. My point withstanding is the tech crowd (including HN comments) and tech YouTubers are clueless when it comes to investing. Perhaps when sentiment on HN of a publicly traded company reaches peak bear you buy, buy, buy.
Examples: Boeing during "covid". Tesla pretty much anytime. Intel....