I’m sort of confused on what prediction markets are going for? Polymarket here said they referred this to the DoJ and are trying to catch users using such insider info, but trading on insider info is the whole point of these markets is it not?
They bill themselves as providing accurate predictions, but the accuracy of those predictions is predicated on incentivizing (financially) users with non public info to share it.
They should probably pick a lane- is it gambling or is it incentivized insider trading for public good (accurate predictions)?
I’m sort of confused on what prediction markets are going for? Polymarket here said they referred this to the DoJ and are trying to catch users using such insider info, but trading on insider info is the whole point of these markets is it not?
They bill themselves as providing accurate predictions, but the accuracy of those predictions is predicated on incentivizing (financially) users with non public info to share it.
They should probably pick a lane- is it gambling or is it incentivized insider trading for public good (accurate predictions)?
I think its more the concept of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster stuff
CNN (21 points, 4 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882645
ABCnews (13 points, 5 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882789
justice.gov (1+75 points, 0+26 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883034 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883108
WSJ (5 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883150
Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/nyregion/polymarket-madur...
> “Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” Mr. Clayton said.
Hard to enforce that in practice, isn't it?
Senators and Congresspersons don’t like competition >8(