Until the price of a flying car isn't much more than an automobile, it will only be a toy for the wealthy. If it costs as much as a Rolls-Royce, few will be able to afford it.
Cars are already contribute far too much noise to urban living. There is no way a flying car will be quieter than cars, so will be rejected from most urban places, just like how jake brake use is often prohibited.
There is nothing in the article about handicap accessibility, strollers, or carrying groceries and children, much less the ability to carry more bulky loads, bikes/ski racks, and trailer loads. The 2-seat Mosaic/personal aircraft won't work for most families.
> A second property, a trailhead, winery, golf course, or resort become potential destinations.
I don't know about you, but with a two-seater where one needs to be a designated pilot, then only one person is drinking. I prefer winery visits with 4 in the car - 3 drinking and 1 DD.
And for that golf course or resort, how much can the Mosaic carry? Several large suitcases and a set of golf clubs?
> Once an aircraft is in the air, the environment is more structured and less cluttered.
Implicit in that statement is the belief flying cars will always be rare. If 1% of the population has a flying car which they use daily for 1 hour then that's a very cluttered sky.
> In the future, cities will be dotted with vertiports
Assuming this is true, how long will it take on average to get to a vertiport? New York Airways flew out of the heliport on the old Pan Am (now MetLife) Building, which required an express elevator to get to the 57th floor. This is slower and can handle far fewer people than getting down to a subway line, and that elevator shaft takes away from commercial space.
Every minute of getting to the vertiport removes 5 miles from the radius, assuming a top-speed of 300 mph and holding to Marchetti’s Constant. And of course in real life it takes time to accelerate to top speed.
> Ground robots or automated tugs will move aircraft between landing pads, charging bays, maintenance areas, and dense storage slots, the same way automated parking systems already move cars through compact garages.
How much space will all that additional infrastructure require? Car infrastructure, including parking spaces, already maims cities.
> There’s no limitation from traffic or roads that have to follow the contours of the land.
OTOH there are limits from other factors, like entering restricted airspace near airports or military bases.
> the land inside the larger circles becomes a compelling real estate play (not investment advice). Packy was one of the first people I spoke to who understood how this expands the local frontier,
One of the first in perhaps some technical sense, but this is precisely why big box stores exist.
> Before cars and highways, suburbia was not a thing.
> Mountain or island homes that were too disconnected to be practical will become normal places to live, work, and build.
So this vision excludes more families with kids. Unless the local school system is operating flights as well?
There's also the downsides of suburban sprawl, only expanded. Forgot to buy some salsa for tonight's meal? You ain't just walking to the bodega or driving to the Albertson's. Just how much more will that flight or drone delivery cost you?
What weather conditions will ground you?
And if the flying car breaks down at your remote island home, what do you do? How do you get a tow?
All those fly-in communities primarily depend on cars, not their planes, or for North Captiva Island, a regular ferry service with a barging service to take materials to and return garbage from the island.
I do agree that trains and then streetcars created suburban corridors, but suburbia as we know it today became possible with highways and mainstream car adoption post WW2, at least in the US.
Ultimately the early generations of flying cars are not capable enough to replace all car use. The Tesla Roadster or even the Nissan Leaf did not replace a first or second car but was an additional vehicle for most buyers.
Walking made 2-mile villages feel local.
Cars made 20-mile cities feel local.
Flying cars will make 200-mile regions feel local.
Until the price of a flying car isn't much more than an automobile, it will only be a toy for the wealthy. If it costs as much as a Rolls-Royce, few will be able to afford it.
The two first order reasons (certification overhead on engineering and low volumes) as to why personal aircraft are so expensive can finally be addressed. https://www.tsungxu.com/i/202017969/the-small-aircraft-cost-...
> dramatically quieter than helicopters
Cars are already contribute far too much noise to urban living. There is no way a flying car will be quieter than cars, so will be rejected from most urban places, just like how jake brake use is often prohibited.
There is nothing in the article about handicap accessibility, strollers, or carrying groceries and children, much less the ability to carry more bulky loads, bikes/ski racks, and trailer loads. The 2-seat Mosaic/personal aircraft won't work for most families.
> A second property, a trailhead, winery, golf course, or resort become potential destinations.
I don't know about you, but with a two-seater where one needs to be a designated pilot, then only one person is drinking. I prefer winery visits with 4 in the car - 3 drinking and 1 DD.
And for that golf course or resort, how much can the Mosaic carry? Several large suitcases and a set of golf clubs?
> Once an aircraft is in the air, the environment is more structured and less cluttered.
Implicit in that statement is the belief flying cars will always be rare. If 1% of the population has a flying car which they use daily for 1 hour then that's a very cluttered sky.
> In the future, cities will be dotted with vertiports
Assuming this is true, how long will it take on average to get to a vertiport? New York Airways flew out of the heliport on the old Pan Am (now MetLife) Building, which required an express elevator to get to the 57th floor. This is slower and can handle far fewer people than getting down to a subway line, and that elevator shaft takes away from commercial space.
Every minute of getting to the vertiport removes 5 miles from the radius, assuming a top-speed of 300 mph and holding to Marchetti’s Constant. And of course in real life it takes time to accelerate to top speed.
> Ground robots or automated tugs will move aircraft between landing pads, charging bays, maintenance areas, and dense storage slots, the same way automated parking systems already move cars through compact garages.
How much space will all that additional infrastructure require? Car infrastructure, including parking spaces, already maims cities.
> There’s no limitation from traffic or roads that have to follow the contours of the land.
OTOH there are limits from other factors, like entering restricted airspace near airports or military bases.
> the land inside the larger circles becomes a compelling real estate play (not investment advice). Packy was one of the first people I spoke to who understood how this expands the local frontier,
One of the first in perhaps some technical sense, but this is precisely why big box stores exist.
> Before cars and highways, suburbia was not a thing.
What? No! The first major suburbs were in the 1800s due to train travel. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburb .
> Mountain or island homes that were too disconnected to be practical will become normal places to live, work, and build.
So this vision excludes more families with kids. Unless the local school system is operating flights as well?
There's also the downsides of suburban sprawl, only expanded. Forgot to buy some salsa for tonight's meal? You ain't just walking to the bodega or driving to the Albertson's. Just how much more will that flight or drone delivery cost you?
What weather conditions will ground you?
And if the flying car breaks down at your remote island home, what do you do? How do you get a tow?
All those fly-in communities primarily depend on cars, not their planes, or for North Captiva Island, a regular ferry service with a barging service to take materials to and return garbage from the island.
I do agree that trains and then streetcars created suburban corridors, but suburbia as we know it today became possible with highways and mainstream car adoption post WW2, at least in the US.
Ultimately the early generations of flying cars are not capable enough to replace all car use. The Tesla Roadster or even the Nissan Leaf did not replace a first or second car but was an additional vehicle for most buyers.