Over the last ten years of following investment news and discussion regularly, I see this question comes up very regularly, or there’s news that some economic indicator changing in X way or such-and-such person predicts for Y reason, that means that we have a huge crash coming in the next few months. This is all just noise with very little or no meaningful signal.
You can even see it here in this thread. I will reiterate - nobody knows.
If your question is motivated by personal finance reasons I recommend not trying to time the market, and reading the Bogleheads wiki https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
Precisely when everybody, including you, least expects it.
Therefore it can't happen until everyone has completely given up hope on the market ever being rational again. At that moment, it suddenly becomes rational.
According to this article [1] money available for investment can be in stocks, cash, or bonds. The market goes up when people prefer stocks, down when they prefer cash and bonds. At present, the allocation to stocks is already higher than it has ever been, since 1950. Chart from FRED [2]. So if this theory is correct trouble is not far off.
My own theory is that at present inflation makes bonds unattractive. At some point a recession will kill inflation (and profits) and make bonds look better relative to stocks.
I don't know if the term 'crash' has a formal definition (for me personally, I would define it as a 25% fall or more in less that 3 months); but I think we will experience a number of 'corrections' of about 10% within the next 5 years.
Well, software already had a ~25% repricing last February, and plenty of SaaS names were down 30–50%. Now for that to hit the whole stock market at once (not just the Nasdaq), I guess you'd need some sort of macro / liquidity event or black swan. High valuations alone just won't do it.
Unironically never. These BS videos are almost always wrong, the market is correctly priced. Just all in 2x levered S&P as we go parabolic and achieve fast takeoff thanks to altman et. all
When Inflation reaches a certain level and makes the US Dollar worth less than pennies. We have had hyperinflation already, and the US Dollar doesn't buy as much as it once did. I figure around 2030, when the Shit Hits the fan and the US National Debt is beyond paying off without printing up a large amount of money. We might go to the Digital Dollar before that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset The WEF has The Great Reset to pay off debt from COVID-19, and it might turn nations into socialist nations with universal basic income for those who lost their jobs and can't find work due to factors like AI, etc.
Nobody knows.
Over the last ten years of following investment news and discussion regularly, I see this question comes up very regularly, or there’s news that some economic indicator changing in X way or such-and-such person predicts for Y reason, that means that we have a huge crash coming in the next few months. This is all just noise with very little or no meaningful signal.
You can even see it here in this thread. I will reiterate - nobody knows.
If your question is motivated by personal finance reasons I recommend not trying to time the market, and reading the Bogleheads wiki https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
Precisely when everybody, including you, least expects it.
Therefore it can't happen until everyone has completely given up hope on the market ever being rational again. At that moment, it suddenly becomes rational.
According to this article [1] money available for investment can be in stocks, cash, or bonds. The market goes up when people prefer stocks, down when they prefer cash and bonds. At present, the allocation to stocks is already higher than it has ever been, since 1950. Chart from FRED [2]. So if this theory is correct trouble is not far off.
[1] https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gr...
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Wc2g
My own theory is that at present inflation makes bonds unattractive. At some point a recession will kill inflation (and profits) and make bonds look better relative to stocks.
Sep 24th 2026. 10:07am EST
When momentum dries up, and not until then. Reportedly Michael Burry has recently placed massive put option bets, the question is what duration ?
6 months? A year?
Retail traders will keep throwing money at the stock market until they just don't anymore. It's not a logical thing.
and then when somebody yells "FIRE !" ... everybody rushes "to the door" and cannot get out in time.
Better to hedge your bets, if you are long in the market, with put options. Think of it as insurance.
> Reportedly Michael Burry has recently placed massive put option bets
Do you think this a meaningful signal?
I don't know if the term 'crash' has a formal definition (for me personally, I would define it as a 25% fall or more in less that 3 months); but I think we will experience a number of 'corrections' of about 10% within the next 5 years.
Well, software already had a ~25% repricing last February, and plenty of SaaS names were down 30–50%. Now for that to hit the whole stock market at once (not just the Nasdaq), I guess you'd need some sort of macro / liquidity event or black swan. High valuations alone just won't do it.
SOON™
"When will then be now?"
I'm looking forward to Spaceballs 2 with some trepidation.
when the money dries up...or more precisely, when the canary realises money has dried up
When the majority of people here believe that it never crashes.
Think when there was a bank run at SVB in 2023 and everyone here was caught with their pants down, begging to the government to rescue them.
For a market crash to happen, it has to be a contagion and spread everywhere else.
Unironically never. These BS videos are almost always wrong, the market is correctly priced. Just all in 2x levered S&P as we go parabolic and achieve fast takeoff thanks to altman et. all
When Inflation reaches a certain level and makes the US Dollar worth less than pennies. We have had hyperinflation already, and the US Dollar doesn't buy as much as it once did. I figure around 2030, when the Shit Hits the fan and the US National Debt is beyond paying off without printing up a large amount of money. We might go to the Digital Dollar before that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset The WEF has The Great Reset to pay off debt from COVID-19, and it might turn nations into socialist nations with universal basic income for those who lost their jobs and can't find work due to factors like AI, etc.
We have had hyperinflation already? When???
If you mean the year of 3% inflation with a brief surge up to 8% that we just had, no, that's not hyperinflation.
Not exactly hyper, but it peaked at 15% p.a. in the 1980s
Yeah. Still not hyperinflation, but a lot closer than anything we've seen since.