Before anyone gets too excited, this is from 2025. It's a statement from a Mayor of Manchester trying to raise his political profile, not a statement from a prime minister who needs to set a concrete agenda. It was before he was forced to run in a pro-Brexit riding to get into parliament, and thus made a bunch of soft commitments to not broach the issue.
Highly misleading to post this without at least a [2025] tag, but I'd say it's misleading to post it to a news forum at all without significantly more context in the title.
Indeed. Even in that speech he contextualises it as a long-term goal.
Plus, what he thinks and what is possible are different things, and he absolutely knows it.
We will, I believe, not rejoin the EU while it is in its current form, because leaving closed us off to the bespoke deal we had before; that deal mattered and was the thing that made our relationship with the EU functional.
We will now suffer as a result of the hubris of idiots for generations; it's unavoidable, and it compounds almost every problem we have.
There is, however, reason not to talk a lot about rejoining for the next two years, because two of our biggest economic threats are Hormuz and Trump; the former can only be addressed as part of a global coalition now, and the latter can only be addressed by playing directly to his narcissism with royal visits and very bespoke strategy. Trump plays the EU by trying to divide it anyway.
It won't happen. I was against Brexit, but now that it's happened it's better that the UK stays on the outside.
The mood in the EU is that after Hungary, we don't need Eurosceptic nations polluting the Union from the inside. There'd have to be a groundswell movement far larger than the original Brexit movement, and I simply don't see that happening.
The fundamental issues of why Brexit happened have to be addressed first, and the British people simply don't want that.
Examples: 'We get our special deals back'. That was negotiated from inside the EU, with the leverage to leave or abuse the veto they held. That leverage is gone.
'We won't join the Euro'. That was a special opt out, also negotiated from inside the EU.
Of course Britain wants to have its cake and eat it. We all do, but it's about leverage, and the UK has exhausted its leverage. Better that the EU and UK remain close allies but forge different paths. It's clear the UK doesn't want to pay the cost of EU membership.
It doesn't really matter what the bulk of British people think they want if the elites can spend a few million turning swing voters against their own interests, and that's fundamentally what needs to be addressed.
Nobody pro-EU left in the UK believes we will be able to rejoin with the rebate, veto or retaining our currency. I don't know who is telling you that we think this: you should probably not listen to them because they are relitigating old conflicts for their own purposes. This is IMO a false framing.
There's no campaign asking for that; we understood it would be gone before we even left, and it was a key part of the Remain position that we were squandering a unique position within Europe.
We will, I think, never rejoin the EU as it is currently constituted; it is better off without us. If it can retain its current unity — which is by no means a given — then we will be on the outside of it forever.
You have your own issues and I do not believe that euroskepticism in continental Europe is gone, though I do think the Hungary transition shows that the Trump administration's deliberate, right wing bigot meddling is having less of an effect that they would like. Not that it is the only reason you have a surging xenophobic far right.
We in the UK have to fend that off a different way; Trump and that evil shit JD Vance present a different threat and we have other levers we must pull, and if we were in the EU at the moment the USA would only be using our tensions with the EU against everyone; without it they have much less power to stoke nationalist fires.
So for the next few years at least I think the campaign to rejoin should be on pause.
I don't really understand where you two disagree. You appear to be saying the same thing.
Sure, nobody is campaigning to rejoin with the old priviliges and opt-outs, but that's because nobody sees how to rejoin with the old priviliges and opt-outs, nor do they see a path to convincing UK voters to rejoin with a worse deal than they used to have.
Hence, all the british politicians who think Brexit was a mistake are just sitting on their hands, and not making any effort to even start a rejoin campaign.
You appear to tacitly accept this premise when you say
> "If it can retain its current unity — which is by no means a given — then we will be on the outside of it forever."
We are saying the same thing except for that specific narrow point (I edited my post a little to make it clearer).
I was just observing that if that is a consensus on the continent — that we're going to be begging to be let back in on the old terms — it is people spinning a yarn for their own reasons. Because it isn't a correct characterisation.
Even the Leave voters have had long enough to realise that what Remain campaigners were saying about the structural advantages of membership and the speed of recovering any comparative position are true. Brexit-means-Brexit types all seem to project success into the future long enough that the only people who will call them on it will be nursing home carers.
You are right that there is no pathway to rejoin that isn't a humiliation. And the longer we wait, the more people forget what we had. Hence Reform and Restore can rage about a worsened border situation that their own politicians actually created; their voters have forgotten that Brexit made it worse.
In a funny way, it seems that Brexit had a net positive effect for the EU.
I remember that prior to it, there were quite a few other anti-EU movements in France, Italy, Greece and other countries. It seems that, after the Brexit disaster, they all receded. Even Hungary and Poland got rid of their anti-EU governments.
I think there's truth to this in that it really took the wind out of all those other exit-campaign's sails, but I'd never say that we're better off without the UK.
The UK is a dynamic, innovative country with a with a lot to offer as a member of the EU, or at least as a very closely associated ally.
The reason that Brexit was successful in quashing other exit campaigns is that the EU was basically forced to take on a super combative, punitive posture with the UK to show other members why it'd be better to stay.
Europe would be much much stronger right now if the EU and the UK could more closely cooperate and align with eachother without both sides worrying about how it'd 'look bad' if they got too chummy.
It happened because we left border treaties that meant that continental EU states were obliged to prevent onward travel to us.
Once we stepped out of that, we needed to find new incentives for France and Belgium to care. We have failed to do so and we had destroyed many agreement frameworks within which any such deal could be struck.
Before anyone gets too excited, this is from 2025. It's a statement from a Mayor of Manchester trying to raise his political profile, not a statement from a prime minister who needs to set a concrete agenda. It was before he was forced to run in a pro-Brexit riding to get into parliament, and thus made a bunch of soft commitments to not broach the issue.
Highly misleading to post this without at least a [2025] tag, but I'd say it's misleading to post it to a news forum at all without significantly more context in the title.
Indeed. Even in that speech he contextualises it as a long-term goal.
Plus, what he thinks and what is possible are different things, and he absolutely knows it.
We will, I believe, not rejoin the EU while it is in its current form, because leaving closed us off to the bespoke deal we had before; that deal mattered and was the thing that made our relationship with the EU functional.
We will now suffer as a result of the hubris of idiots for generations; it's unavoidable, and it compounds almost every problem we have.
There is, however, reason not to talk a lot about rejoining for the next two years, because two of our biggest economic threats are Hormuz and Trump; the former can only be addressed as part of a global coalition now, and the latter can only be addressed by playing directly to his narcissism with royal visits and very bespoke strategy. Trump plays the EU by trying to divide it anyway.
Yes it was. Maybe not too late to fix it, and I hope they do.
It won't happen. I was against Brexit, but now that it's happened it's better that the UK stays on the outside.
The mood in the EU is that after Hungary, we don't need Eurosceptic nations polluting the Union from the inside. There'd have to be a groundswell movement far larger than the original Brexit movement, and I simply don't see that happening.
The fundamental issues of why Brexit happened have to be addressed first, and the British people simply don't want that.
Examples: 'We get our special deals back'. That was negotiated from inside the EU, with the leverage to leave or abuse the veto they held. That leverage is gone.
'We won't join the Euro'. That was a special opt out, also negotiated from inside the EU.
Of course Britain wants to have its cake and eat it. We all do, but it's about leverage, and the UK has exhausted its leverage. Better that the EU and UK remain close allies but forge different paths. It's clear the UK doesn't want to pay the cost of EU membership.
It doesn't really matter what the bulk of British people think they want if the elites can spend a few million turning swing voters against their own interests, and that's fundamentally what needs to be addressed.
Nobody pro-EU left in the UK believes we will be able to rejoin with the rebate, veto or retaining our currency. I don't know who is telling you that we think this: you should probably not listen to them because they are relitigating old conflicts for their own purposes. This is IMO a false framing.
There's no campaign asking for that; we understood it would be gone before we even left, and it was a key part of the Remain position that we were squandering a unique position within Europe.
We will, I think, never rejoin the EU as it is currently constituted; it is better off without us. If it can retain its current unity — which is by no means a given — then we will be on the outside of it forever.
You have your own issues and I do not believe that euroskepticism in continental Europe is gone, though I do think the Hungary transition shows that the Trump administration's deliberate, right wing bigot meddling is having less of an effect that they would like. Not that it is the only reason you have a surging xenophobic far right.
We in the UK have to fend that off a different way; Trump and that evil shit JD Vance present a different threat and we have other levers we must pull, and if we were in the EU at the moment the USA would only be using our tensions with the EU against everyone; without it they have much less power to stoke nationalist fires.
So for the next few years at least I think the campaign to rejoin should be on pause.
I don't really understand where you two disagree. You appear to be saying the same thing.
Sure, nobody is campaigning to rejoin with the old priviliges and opt-outs, but that's because nobody sees how to rejoin with the old priviliges and opt-outs, nor do they see a path to convincing UK voters to rejoin with a worse deal than they used to have.
Hence, all the british politicians who think Brexit was a mistake are just sitting on their hands, and not making any effort to even start a rejoin campaign.
You appear to tacitly accept this premise when you say
> "If it can retain its current unity — which is by no means a given — then we will be on the outside of it forever."
We are saying the same thing except for that specific narrow point (I edited my post a little to make it clearer).
I was just observing that if that is a consensus on the continent — that we're going to be begging to be let back in on the old terms — it is people spinning a yarn for their own reasons. Because it isn't a correct characterisation.
Even the Leave voters have had long enough to realise that what Remain campaigners were saying about the structural advantages of membership and the speed of recovering any comparative position are true. Brexit-means-Brexit types all seem to project success into the future long enough that the only people who will call them on it will be nursing home carers.
You are right that there is no pathway to rejoin that isn't a humiliation. And the longer we wait, the more people forget what we had. Hence Reform and Restore can rage about a worsened border situation that their own politicians actually created; their voters have forgotten that Brexit made it worse.
Man, if only some sitting politicians would take up the call.
In a funny way, it seems that Brexit had a net positive effect for the EU.
I remember that prior to it, there were quite a few other anti-EU movements in France, Italy, Greece and other countries. It seems that, after the Brexit disaster, they all receded. Even Hungary and Poland got rid of their anti-EU governments.
The EU is stronger because of Brexit, not weaker.
I think there's truth to this in that it really took the wind out of all those other exit-campaign's sails, but I'd never say that we're better off without the UK.
The UK is a dynamic, innovative country with a with a lot to offer as a member of the EU, or at least as a very closely associated ally.
The reason that Brexit was successful in quashing other exit campaigns is that the EU was basically forced to take on a super combative, punitive posture with the UK to show other members why it'd be better to stay.
Europe would be much much stronger right now if the EU and the UK could more closely cooperate and align with eachother without both sides worrying about how it'd 'look bad' if they got too chummy.
Indeed.
The UK left the EU to control their borders, and the number of irregular arrivals, increased sharply after Brexit. Think about that for a while...
It happened because we left border treaties that meant that continental EU states were obliged to prevent onward travel to us.
Once we stepped out of that, we needed to find new incentives for France and Belgium to care. We have failed to do so and we had destroyed many agreement frameworks within which any such deal could be struck.