As usual, very cool to see how they present the data. But personally, the future projections feel a little too optimistic. I don't blame them, they are just going with the trends as they seen them now, but a lot of population expectations of ever a few decades back now look comical in terms of their peaks.
But as always, I am but one random internet dork who doesn't have the same information they have, so that is how you should see my take.
This is predicated on overly optimistic population predictions by the UN. The CBO predicts peak US population in 2056, the US Census in 2080, for example. The UN is notorious for overestimating forward looking fertility rates or potential rebounds from current lows.
As usual, very cool to see how they present the data. But personally, the future projections feel a little too optimistic. I don't blame them, they are just going with the trends as they seen them now, but a lot of population expectations of ever a few decades back now look comical in terms of their peaks.
But as always, I am but one random internet dork who doesn't have the same information they have, so that is how you should see my take.
interesting to see that the only regions to still not have peaked in 2100 are: USA, Canada, much of Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
This is predicated on overly optimistic population predictions by the UN. The CBO predicts peak US population in 2056, the US Census in 2080, for example. The UN is notorious for overestimating forward looking fertility rates or potential rebounds from current lows.
https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/the-u-n-has-quietly-lowere...
https://www.aei.org/commentary/peak-american/
https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/fertility-rates-acr...
https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-...
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879
(fertility rates are converging globally at ~1-1.6 TFR, with some countries as low as 0.6-0.8)