It's not all inflation expectations, either. The dollar has been strong lately due to elevated oil prices---countries that are short need extra dollars to buy oil, so they often liquidate treasuries to get them.
You have that backwards. The market sets the long end of the curve via supply and demand,the Fed controls the short end of the curve (federal funds rate)
If the Fed hiked the (short-term) FFR, long term inflation expectations would go down, along with the yield of long duration Treasury bonds.
"People are worried about America's solvency" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49329347
The whole world is insolvent
Time for a global debt jubilee.
Please let me know when it's time to max out my credit cards to buy gold.
It's rising because the market expects interest rate hikes. Long-term bonds are basically a prediction market for future interest rates.
The 30 year isn’t as affected by interest rate hikes unless the market is signaling it sees long term inflation despite interest rate hikes.
The 30 year should reflect more fundamental issues.
30y is keyed to inflation expectations.
If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down.
It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
It's not all inflation expectations, either. The dollar has been strong lately due to elevated oil prices---countries that are short need extra dollars to buy oil, so they often liquidate treasuries to get them.
You have that backwards. The market sets the long end of the curve via supply and demand,the Fed controls the short end of the curve (federal funds rate)
If the Fed hiked the (short-term) FFR, long term inflation expectations would go down, along with the yield of long duration Treasury bonds.
Investing in long term bond == expected interest rate hikes?
yield rising means selling