It is allvsmoke and mirrors - the memory makes know better than anyone this money burning party will end sooner or later, so they will milk it as hard as they can. They will also invest zero money to capacity that would sit idle once the "AI craze of 2020s" is finally over.
the one opening in 2028 predates LLMs as we know them. It even predates CHIPS- because Micron got the appliction submitted in a couple months: which included the location.
Say what you want about AI- but we were already at peak "need more fabs" before openai yanked half of SKhynix and samsung's capacity.
They have to expand capacity, Chinese company CXMT is scaling fast; Micron and SK need to protect their market share even if they risk trading at a loss in 2028.
"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
It is allvsmoke and mirrors - the memory makes know better than anyone this money burning party will end sooner or later, so they will milk it as hard as they can. They will also invest zero money to capacity that would sit idle once the "AI craze of 2020s" is finally over.
the one opening in 2028 predates LLMs as we know them. It even predates CHIPS- because Micron got the appliction submitted in a couple months: which included the location.
Say what you want about AI- but we were already at peak "need more fabs" before openai yanked half of SKhynix and samsung's capacity.
They have to expand capacity, Chinese company CXMT is scaling fast; Micron and SK need to protect their market share even if they risk trading at a loss in 2028.
Imma wait till the GREAT RAM CRASH of 2028.
If its all going to be new silicon, I hope they'll focus on CAMM2 - both memory and motherboard makers.
So minimum of 1.5 years drought to go :(